Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-29 4.109297 4.551878 5.083731 5.791686 6.748912 8.072325 10.220861
2025-01-05 3.452745 3.945524 4.583909 5.524847 7.001830 9.576585 16.076692
2025-01-12 3.055487 3.546562 4.208064 5.240438 7.020128 10.718233 26.465823
2025-01-19 2.817397 3.309661 3.993368 5.111839 7.208299 12.449549 88.901948
2025-01-26 2.715788 3.238617 3.993800 5.310218 8.103816 18.010133 NaN
2025-02-02 2.662159 3.224176 4.070260 5.654353 9.594421 38.778371 NaN
2025-02-09 2.557795 3.122936 3.992708 5.687838 10.349816 122.300174 NaN
2025-02-16 2.475317 3.045479 3.941779 5.759934 11.343988 NaN NaN
2025-02-23 2.348884 2.891659 3.746335 5.485652 10.878043 NaN NaN
2025-03-02 2.283161 2.826117 3.694244 5.514536 11.697916 NaN NaN
2025-03-09 2.217500 2.755949 3.626760 5.494953 12.339823 NaN NaN
2025-03-16 2.139084 2.661348 3.508561 5.337426 12.183405 NaN NaN
2025-03-23 2.108849 2.643068 3.528090 5.523931 14.335831 NaN NaN
2025-03-30 2.025363 2.536172 3.380242 5.273415 13.450254 NaN NaN
2025-04-06 1.946071 2.433067 3.234173 5.014060 12.420701 NaN NaN
2025-04-13 1.890135 2.365073 3.148185 4.896712 12.314428 NaN NaN
2025-04-20 1.875329 2.361711 3.178775 5.077356 14.625850 NaN NaN
2025-04-27 1.874405 2.380330 3.251293 5.389075 19.783866 NaN NaN
2025-05-04 1.843263 2.347771 3.224014 5.419293 22.341030 NaN NaN
2025-05-11 1.817418 2.322720 3.209281 5.484285 26.596801 NaN NaN
2025-05-18 1.763542 2.249155 3.095856 5.236529 22.871848 NaN NaN
2025-05-25 1.738284 2.222519 3.073187 5.262684 26.117978 NaN NaN
2025-06-01 1.710402 2.190437 3.037870 5.244953 28.693610 NaN NaN